Thursday, June 27, 2013

Early Look at 2014: Lets Get a Head Start

So now that we have finished the 2013 NBA Draft, we can look forward to next year which is shaping up to be one of the greatest drafts in NBA history. With in the coming days I will unveil my grades for this past season, but for now lets have some fun and peg the potential top 15 players for next year.

The Draft Fanatic

1. Andrew Wiggins: Forward: Kansas: Freshman
Most electric wing player since Kevin Durant and possibly most coveted top pick since LeBron James.











2. Julius Randle: Forward: Kentucky: Freshman
Big time talent at the four spot. Should be a dynamic player so long as he remains healthy.











3. Jabari Parker: Forward: Duke: Freshman
Most skilled player in the country and hasn't played a game. Can shoot the ball from deep, high IQ and he is a proven winner.











4. Aaron Gordon: Forward: Arizona
Blake Griffin like ability to destroy opposing defenses. Can operate around the basket, hyper athletic and will be a big play guy.











5. Marcus Smart: Point Guard: Oklahoma State
Best PG in the country. Could've been a top 3 pick this year, but decided to return to school. Great size and vision.











6. Glen Robinson III: Forward: Michigan
Another guy that came back to school and could've been a lottery pick. Great length and skill on the wing. Can shoot it from outside and create off the dribble.






7. Andrew Harrison: Point Guard: Kentucky
Lead guard with huge frame and loves contact. Can shoot from deep and handle the ball with great skill.











8. Mitch McGary: Forward/Center: Michigan
Had a tremendous NCAA tourney and decided to gain another year of experience. High skill, big hands and elite rebounder.











9. Isaiah Austin: Forward: Baylor
Perfect stretch four, with a knack for rebounding and blocking shots.












10. Dario Saric: Forward: International
Withdrew from this years draft to play another season overseas, would've been first international player taken in the draft. May be next great European player.






11. Gary Harris: Guard: Michigan State
Traditional shooting guard in the mold of Ray Allen. Great shooting touch, can create off the dribble and low maintenance.











12. Alex Poythress: Forward: Kentucky
Would've been a high pick in this past years draft, but decided to stay to attempt to win a national title. Great size and hands. Needs confidence, but if he shows that has LeBron like size on the wing.










13. Adreian Payne: Forward: Michigan State
Great length and great hands. Can shoot the three as a spot up four, but can also run the court. Great rebounder and defender.











14. James Michael-McAdoo: North Carolina
Great skill player. Big time rebounder and huge motor. Could've left for the draft two years ago.











15. Willie Cauley Stein: Center: Kentucky
Great length, shot blocker and rebounder. Additional year in school will allow his offense to grow and earn him more touches around the basket.





Mock Lottery: The Dawn of a New Era

We have now arrived to Draft Day. As I pointed out in my initial post "It All Started in 96" , I have enjoyed the hype and noise surrounding draft day as much as I love the Draft itself. The crowning moments of the Draft are all in the Lottery. Don't get me wrong there are steals and nuggets sprinkled through out the Draft, however the best moments come in the first 14 picks. 95 percent of the absolute studs have been drafted with the first 14 picks. The list of legends and future legends speaks for itself, Michael Jordan in 84, Shaq in 92, LeBron in 03 and Damian Lillard in 12.

Its both the culmination of a childhood dream and the beginning of a new life, full of fame and fortune. The real ballplayers such as Kevin Durant, Reggie Miller, Karl Malone and Kevin Garnett capitalize. A few individuals have faltered under the pressure of being such a high draft pick (Michael Beasley, Hasheem Thabeet, Marvin Williams, Darko Milicic), but the majority have thrived. Tonight its all celebration, tears, joy and for some a sense of completion. Tomorrow, its endorsement deals, contract negotiations, summer league and your first trip into the deep end. So now we look at my final take based off of several sources (Chad Ford: ESPN Insider, Aaron Smith: Hoopshype.com and the fine folks at Draftexpress.com) and my own personal take. I take pride in knowing this game and loving this game. Tonight, like every year I am excited for all of the young men and I look forward to seeing them suit up.

The Draft Fanatic


1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel: Center: Kentucky
Why? Always take the combination of need meets best available talent. Cavs may move the pick, but if they don't might as well not over think this one. Noel when healthy can block shots and rebound, two things that always carry over from the college game. 









2. Orlando Magic: Victor Oladipo: Shooting Guard: Indiana
Why? May have the most upside of any person in the draft. Has a "Russell Westbrook" like motor. When his jumper evolves, he will become an All-Star.







3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter: Small Forward: Georgetown
Why? Final piece to a young team on the verge of returning to the playoffs. Ready to start now.









4. Charlotte Bobcats: Ben McLemore: Shooting Guard: Kansas
Why? Provided he falls this far, Jordan can't mess this up. He is sure fire offense which is what the Bobcats lack. Playing for the original 23 will provide him with all the confidence he needs. 











5. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Bennett: Small Forward/Power Forward: UNLV
Why? Second best prospect talent wise. The Larry Johnson upgrade. The Suns were terrible last season, this will be a step in the right direction. He will have the keys to the kingdom. 











6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke: Point Guard: Michigan
Why? Best point guard on the board and the perfect Robin to Anthony Davis's Batman. Big heart, Big Shot, Big Handle...Ask Kansas








7. Sacramento Kings: C.J. McCollum: Shooting Guard: Lehigh
Why? High character kid, can take pressure off of DeMarcus Cousins on offensive end. Time to change the culture of players now that prior ownership, management and coaching have moved on.  











8. Detroit Pistons: Michael Carter-Williams: Point Guard: Syracuse
Why? Rare combination of size and point guard skill. If Drummond continues to develop at current pace, then you want a young point guard to develop with him. This could become the new age Magic/Kareem or Penny/Shaq.  







9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kentavious Claldwell-Pope: Shooting Guard: Georgia
Why? This years version of Klay Thompson. Pure shooter, with good handle and ability to guard. Great fit on a young team in need of perimeter offense. 












10. Portland Trailblazers: Alex Len: Center: Maryland
Why? Not going to lie, this player will make or break this Mock Draft. He has the talent to be a top 5 pick, but are those teams willing to wait for him to come around. Best player left on the board, if Aldridge leaves he is a great insurance policy. 










11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller: Power Forward: Indiana
Why? They need to erase this past year. Andrew Bynum set this team back, Zeller will move them forward. Big motor, nice game and has a Pro Pedigree. 











12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams: Center: Pitt
Why? For a team so close to winning a Championship, its hard to say what they lack. Eventually Perkins will wash out and Adams will prove to be more than a great replacement. He has all the raw tools that Serge Ibaka possessed. Could become a jackpot pick. 








13. Dallas Mavericks: Sergey Karasev: Small Forward: Russia
Why? Could be heir apparent to Dirk Nowitzki. He has a NBA game now and isn't afraid to let it go. 








14. Utah Jazz: Shane Larkin: Point Guard: Miami
Why? They need depth at the Point Guard. Last season when Mo Williams got hurt, they went from a playoff team to an outsider. He has energy, athleticism (40+ inch vertical) and great shot. Perfect long term answer and counterpart for the stable of young big men (Favors and Kanter).


Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Mock Draft 3.0: Calm Before the Storm


We have reached the eve of the NBA Draft and things are brewing. We can expect some form of fireworks within the next 24 hours. Anticipation is building and everyone wants to know how Cleveland will set the pace. Alex Len or Nerlens Noel? Will they trade the pick and enhance the team with a worthy veteran. Can OKC enter the top 5? Will Jimmer be moved for a late first round pick? Will Detroit get lucky for a 4th straight year? Who will be left in the Green Room a little longer than expected? Here is my take on how things should play out for both the First and Second rounds of the draft.

The Draft Fanatic

Round 1

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Alex Len
2. Orlando Magic: Victor Oladipo
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Ben McLemore
5. Phoenix Suns: Nerlens Noel
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke
7. Sacramento Kings: Anthony Bennett 
8. Detroit Pistons: Michael Carter-Williams
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kentavious Claldwell-Pope 
10. Portland Trailblazers: C.J. McCollum
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams
13. Dallas Mavericks: Shabazz Muhammad 
14. Utah Jazz: Shane Larkin
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Dennis Schroeder
16. Boston Celtics: Kelly Olynyk 
17. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Mitchell
18. Atlanta Hawks: Jamaal Franklin
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: Sergey Karasev 
20. Chicago Bulls: Tim Hardaway Jr. 
21. Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert
22. Brooklyn Nets: Reggie Bullock
23. Indiana Pacers: Ricky Ledo
24. New York Knicks: Isaiah Canaan 
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Allan Crabbe 
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Giannis Adetokunbo 
27. Denver Nuggets: Gorgui Dieng
28. San Antonio Spurs: Lucas Nogueira 
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeff Withey 
30. Phoenix Suns: Pierre Jackson

Round 2


1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Tony Snell
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: Erick Green
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nate Wolters
4. Houston Rockets: Mike Muscala
5. Philadelphia 76ers: Ray McCallum
6. Sacramento Kings: C.J. Leslie 
7. Detroit Pistons: Erik Murphy  
8. Washington Wizards: Alex Abrines 
9. Portland Trailblazers:  Colton Iverson
10. Portland Trailblazers Brandon Davies
11. Memphis Grizzlies: Deshaun Thomas
12. Philadelphia 76ers: Jackie Carmichael 
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Archie Goodwin 
14. Dallas Mavericks: Ryan Kelly 
15. Portland Trailblazers: Grant Jerrett 
16. Utah Jazz: Phil Pressey 
17. Atlanta Hawks: Trevor Mbakwe
18. L.A. Lakers: Solomon Hill 
19. Chicago Bulls: Livio-Jean Charles 
20. Atlanta Hawks: Andre Roberson 
21. Orlando Magic: Marko Todorovic 
22. Minnesota Timberwolves: James Ennis 
23. Indiana Pacers: Lorenzo Brown
24. Washington Wizards: Nemanja Nedovic 
25. Memphis Grizzlies: D.J. Cooper 
26. Detroit Pistons: Kenny Kadji 
27. Phoenix Suns: Matthew Dellavedova 
28. San Antonio Spurs: Willy Clyburn 
29. Minnesota Timberwolves: Seth Curry
30. Memphis Grizzlies: Peyton Siva

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

The Big "WHAT IF": Lets Say These Trades Never Happened

As Draft day approaches the NBA has begun to stir. Many teams looking for that "One Deal" to put them in the Playoffs begin to make phone calls. Many of these calls end up being nothing more than a fishing expedition to help fuel speculation. Some however can shake the foundation of the league for years to come. Many Draft deals have led to Hall of Fame careers and championships. The interesting thing is if you flip the deal, what would happen? I am going to look at 5 draft day deals that led to seismic shifts in NBA history. The deals that many people don't even realize took place or have just forgotten about. Lets just let the imagination run wild.

1. 1993: What happened? Orlando Drafted Chris Webber and traded him to Golden State for Penny Hardaway.


What if Chris Webber stays? If Chris Webber never gets traded, the Orlando Magic may wind up having the best front court in NBA history. The previous year Orlando drafted Shaquille O'Neal, which gave them a cornerstone for the future. By adding Webber, the Magic would've almost certainly dominated the Eastern Conference during the two year absence of Michael Jordan. Both players won Rookie of the Year and if you look at the second year stats for Shaq (29 ppg, 13 rebs, 3 blks) and the Rookie season for Webber (17 ppg, 9 rebs, 2 blks) , things definitely would've looked up. Shaq may have never left Orlando, Webber may have won a championship and the Rockets may have had a tougher time dominating in the absence of Jordan.


2. 1996: What happened? Charlotte Hornets Drafted Kobe Bryant and traded him to the Lakers for Vlade Divac.

What if Kobe Bryant stays? First we need to ask ourselves something, WHAT THE HECK WERE THEY THINKING? I mean, we are talking about Kobe Bryant, heir to the throne of next great ball player. Granted he was selected 13 so I guess you can say; "what were the previous 12 teams thinking", but to be fair some serious talent was drafted at guard prior to Kobe, in fact all future starters and All Stars. Now back to the what if? If Kobe stays in Charlotte and he grows at the same rate, one can argue that once Jordan departs the league Kobe fills the void immediately. The talent was always there, but many believe he didn't reach his full potential until after Shaq was traded to Miami. Charlotte would've been forced to build around the young stud and eventually would have challenged for League wide supremacy.

3. 1996: What happened? Milwaukee Bucks trade Stephon Marbury to Minnesota Timberwolves for Ray Allen.

What if the trade never happens? This becomes a tale of two cities. Lets start with Marbury, who as of now is making a nice living for himself in China. Marbury would've worked well with Glen Robinson and Vin Baker. If you have a quality imagination he may have been enough to put the Bucks in contention with the then mid level teams and eventually upper level teams. Marbury came into the league with Elite everything; speed, handle, jumper and ability to create. The other factor is the EGO component. Neither Vin Baker, nor Glen Robinson were known for being huge ego guys, so Marbury would've had the world in his palm in the way of attention.

On the other end of the trade Ray Allen would've been money next to Kevin Garnett. How do we know this for certain, because we have factual data that proves it. While in Boston together, the pair (Along with Paul Pierce) won a championship. Rewind the clock back to 1996, give them a decade to reach their prime together and we would've witnessed a monumental 1-2 punch. A young feisty Kevin Garnett and a more athletic Ray Allen may have been enough to earn both multiple title runs.

4. 1998: What happened? Dallas Mavericks trade Robert "Tractor" Traylor to Milwaukee Bucks for Dirk Nowitzki

What if Dirk stays with the Bucks? First, lets look at the rest of the roster: Ray Allen, Glen Robinson, Tim Thomas, Terrell Brandon, Sam Cassell and Dell Curry. Of course there are other players, but that group of individuals along with a young up and coming Dirk would've blossomed into a sure fire juggernaut. While Robert Traylor was a good pro (may he rest in peace), he was no Dirk. Imagine a offense with Sam Cassell brining the ball up in his prime, Glen Robinson on the elbow, Ray Allen running the baseline through screens and Dirk in the high post. LETHAL! This would've been majestic.

5. 2006: What happened? Chicago Bulls trade LaMarcus Aldridge to Portland Trailblazers for Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khryapa.

What would've been? First and foremost the Bulls outright blew this one. A LaMarcus Aldridge and Joakim Noah front court would've been epic. The defensive prowess of Noah, with the offensive poise and skill of Aldridge would've definitely anchored a devastating Bulls team. Throw in the eventual addition of Derrick Rose and now you might have the cure for the Miami Heat.

Tyrus Thomas has never averaged more than 10 points and 6 rebounds per game. LeMarcus Aldridge's career averages are 18 and 8. Thomas has barely played the last 5 seasons, while Aldridge has been freakishly good. Aldridge is an All-Star, Thomas is just lost. Hope I have proved my point. If I haven't, consider this Thomas was actually selected after Aldridge and then they were traded for one another. Lastly, I won't even bother you with the details of Viktor Khryapa. Just know, this was a very, very, very bad trade.

The Draft Fanatic

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Heavy is the Crown: Best Number 1 picks of the last 25 years

Now that the season is over and the Miami Heat have been crowned the 2013 NBA Champions, we can shift our focus to complete Draft Coverage. This past years NBA Finals highlighted a very important part of the NBA draft, the number 1 pick. Both the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs were led by past number 1 picks, LeBron James and Tim Duncan. Whether the player being drafted number 1 wins with the team that selected him or another team, its expected that at one point he will lead his team to an NBA Championship. Presumably he will also be in the conversation for MVP at some point; play in multiple All-Star games, get an Olympic invite and have a major endorsement deal with one of the big 3 shoe companies.

Number 1 picks inherit an unnatural amount of scrutiny. They have to carry the mantle of the other great number 1 picks and handle immense pressure. There are tons of great players that were not Number 1 picks, so this isn't the measuring stick for greatness. In the last 25 years Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler and many more were selected with picks beyond the first and no one doubts their greatness. Who were the top picks in their drafts? Greg Oden, Andrew Bogut and Kwame Brown. Two of these picks Oden and Bogut have had careers plagued with injuries. When both have played they have been productive, but neither has lived up to the lofty expectations of the number 1 pick. Kwame Brown is in the Hall of Shame as one of the worst picks in NBA history, let alone top picks. Thanks Michael Jordan.



All players have promise and some have the desire to match that promise, but not all can string it together for a 12-15 year span. It takes a lot to shoulder the burden of the Number 1 pick and as James and Duncan have proved, its not impossible. Lets take a look at some of the better careers that began by being selected Number 1 overall.

List is in Chronological order: Top 10

1. 1988 Clippers: Danny Manning, Kansas:  Already a known star, Danny Manning had just delivered a National title and won National Player of the Year. He averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds during his rookie season.

Career: 15 seasons, 14 ppg and 5 rebounds
Milestones: 2x All Star, 1998 Sixth Man of the Year



2. 1991 Hornets: Larry Johnson, UNLV: Like Manning, Johnson was a stud in College. He led is Running Rebels to two consecutive national title games, winning in 1990. He was a consensus player of the year and essentially a guaranteed number 1 pick. He averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds as a rookie.

Career: 10 seasons, 16 ppg and 7 rebounds
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 2x All Star




3. 1992 Magic: Shaquille O'Neal, LSU: Like a force of nature, Shaq took the world by storm. He won the Adolph Rupp player of the year award and led LSU to the NCAA tourney. As a rookie he was nothing short of amazing, averaging 23 points and 14 rebounds.



Career: 19 seasons, 24 ppg, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 15x All Star, NBA MVP (2000), 4x NBA Champion, 3x NBA Finals MVP



4. 1993 Magic (Traded to GSW): Chris Webber, Michigan: Webber was the centerpiece of the Famed Fab Five. His skill and aggressive nature helped lead a young Michigan team to back to back NCAA Finals appearances. He averaged 17 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks a game during his rookie season.

Career: 15 seasons, 21 ppg, 11 rebounds and 1 block
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 5x All Star




5. 1996 76ers: Allen Iverson, Georgetown: The lightening quick scoring guard from Virginia had a handle and game that were larger than life. He led the storied Hoyas program to the Big East title in his sophomore year and became the first player to leave school early under John Thompson. He averaged 23 points, 7 assists and 2 steals his rookie year.


Career: 14 seasons, 27 ppg, 6 assists and 2 steals
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, MVP (2001), 11x All Star



6. 1997 Spurs: Tim Duncan, Wake Forest: "The Big Fundamental" was destined to be the top pick. While his team experienced success early on during his college career and then faded, he himself improved every year. He was constantly urged to leave school early with the promise of being the top pick in the draft, however he remained in school and built his legend. His rookie season he averaged 21 points, 12 rebounds and 2 blocks a game.


Career: 16 seasons, 20 ppg, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 2x MVP (02-03), 4x NBA Champion, 14x All Star


7. 2003 Cavs: LeBron James, St. Vincent/St. Mary's High School: LeBron James was hailed as the next big thing during his Junior year of high school. He became the first Junior to ever win the Gatorade NPOY award and was a 3x Mr. Basketball. He was dubbed "The Most Hyped Prospect Ever". Fate would have it that his Native state Cavaliers would draft him number 1. He averaged 21 points, 6 assist and 5 rebounds during his rookie year.


Career: 10 seasons, 28 ppg, 7 rebounds and 7 assists
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 4x MVP (09,10,12,13), 2x NBA Champion, 9x All Star


8. 2004 Magic: Dwight Howard, Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy: Dwight Howard came of age playing AAU basketball during the summers against the best young players in the country. He was named Consensus NPOY in high school and became a sure thing to be a top pick in the draft. He averaged 12 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks his rookie season.



Career: 9 seasons, 18 ppg, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks
Milestones: 3x Defensive Player of the Year (09-11), 7x All Star


9. 2008 Bulls: Derrick Rose, Memphis: Rose was a powerful point guard, with unnatural speed and athleticism. He led the Memphis Tigers to a 33-1 record and the the brink of glory in the 2008 National Championship game. Derrick Rose declared for the NBA draft after losing the game to Kansas and worked his way towards the lottery. He averaged 17 points and six assists as a rookie.



Career: 5 seasons, 21 ppg and 7 assists
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, MVP (2011), 3x All Star


10. 2009 Clippers: Blake Griffin, Oklahoma: Griffin earned a reputation as a "Human Highlight Reel". He appeared to be the second coming of Shawn Kemp, the way he rose above defenders or blew past them in the open court. He was a consensus college NPOY and a virtual lock for the number 1 pick in the draft. He averaged 22 points and 12 rebounds during his rookie year.



Career: 3 seasons, 20 ppg and 10 rebounds
Milestones: Rookie of the Year, 3x All Star

The Draft Fanatic