With eight days left until the draft I will be taking a look at some of the known/unknowns of the draft. The players that pose an enormous risk, but are so worth drafting because that reward can pay off in a massive way. This is different from the Potential Steal article I wrote, because these players are generally first round picks. They have enough buzz and film to carry them into the first round, but have enough mystique to give them the "Gamble" label. These players have been watched and probed, all they need now is the right situation to bloom in. Players such as Serge Ibaka, Jimmy Butler, Roy Hibbert and Kenneth Faried were all looked at as potential high risk/high reward. Those players have all worked out well and provided high reward. Others have been a blown gamble such as Marvin Williams, Austin Daye and Brandon Wright. So lets see who is stirring the pot this draft season.
The Draft Fanatic
WILD CARDS!
1. Alex Len: Center, 7'1, 255 pounds: Maryland, Sophomore
Alex Len had a pretty solid career at Maryland. He averaged 12 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. While those number might not impress you, keep in mind he is 20 years old, a legit seven footer and had some big moments against key competition (23 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks against Kentucky). He has a great touch near the basket, can shoot the ball and he has great feet. The risk is that he may never blossom. He could flounder and become a Darko clone which could get your favorite team ridiculed forever, unless you can win a championship ASAP like Joe Dumars.
Ceiling: Brooke Lopez
Floor: Darko Milicic
2. Steven Adams: Center, 7'0, 255 pounds: Pitt, Freshman
Like Len Adams is young and has an opportunity to become something special. Adams had a pedestrian freshman season at Pitt, average 7 points, 6 board and 2 blocks per game. In fact until the combine, many viewed his early departure from Pitt as a mistake. Then he showed supreme athletic ability and a great shot. His shooting ability was a massive concern, but in the month following the end of the season he made large strides which moved him from fringe first rounder to potential lottery pick. What is the risk of a player with size, strength and a good looking jumper? Failure to put it all together. Adams has only played against high level talent a couple of years so he will be a long term project, but one that could be the key to a finals push 3-5 years down the road.
Ceiling: Andrew Bynum (when healthy)
Floor: Ryan Hollins
3. Rudy Gobert: Center, 7'2, 238 pounds: Cholet, France
Gobert is long. That is truly all you need to know. His measurements at the combine were astronomical (Standing reach 9'7). He can dunk a basketball while on his toes. Put that together with the fact that he has played at a pretty high level in France and you have the potential for a dominant defensive presence in a few years. Patience will be the key here though. He only weighs 238 pounds, which means he will get man handled for a couple of years until he can pack on the weight. Lucky for him he isn't the smallest big in this years draft (Nerlens Noel, 216 pounds) so that shouldn't be the knock against him. What should it be? Can and will he develop that mean streak that all great big men have? If he can, then scoring and blocking shots will become second nature. If he is placed in the right system, with quality coaches and a veteran presence he will be a starting center for the next decade.
Ceiling: Roy Hibbert
Floor: Shawn Bradley
4. Giannis Adetokunbo: Small Forward, 6'9, 196 pounds: Greece
This years largest mystery comes to us from Greece. The 6'9 potential prodigy has had NBA GM's flocking overseas for the last two months to see him play. Giannis burst on to my radar via the youtube video below. His story differs from the other prospects in that he has no experience playing against high level talent of any caliber. He has a good handle for his size (some say high school pg), good vision and a aggressive nature. He can run the floor and has the potential to become that rare special talent. The lack of actual game time experience against consistently tough opponents will keep him stashed for at least another season, however if he manages to put it together he can have a All Star caliber game. The team that drafts him will need PATIENCE and then some. He is essentially at the level of a 5 star Junior in high school. He will need constant guidance and monitoring to ensure the growth.
Ceiling: Luol Deng
Floor: Yi Jianlian
5. Tony Mitchell: Power Forward, 6'9, 236 pounds: North Texas, Sophomore
Mitchell could have been drafted last year in the lottery. His talent is through the roof, but where is the motivation? He averaged 13 points, 8.5 boards and almost 3 blocks a game. Believe it or not, those were all down from his freshmen year. He has the ability erupt when he wants; 29 points, 15 boards and 4 blocks against Troy, but then he will drop a dud 3 points, 4 boards and 4 fouls against LA-Lafayette. He is an erratic talent, which some believe had more to do with the limitations of the program he played in. If he can overcome his own demons and mature, he will be a definite dark horse.
Ceiling: Antoine Walker
Floor: Royce White
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