Wednesday, June 19, 2013

2013 Wild Card Draft: Most Intriguing Prospects

The 2013 NBA Draft is full of the unknown. I have echoed these thoughts in some of my previous posts, but its only because its the only certain thing we know. This draft will be remembered because of the Potential that exists and not just the sure thing. Many of the top picks are injured which has prevented them from working out for teams. Other players while talented, scare teams because of the lack of certain intangibles that have been used to grade other talented stars. How can you find a future star if the sure thing doesn't exist? This is the question that many GM's are asking and if that's a tough one, what about the talent that many assume exists but there isn't enough evidence to support the assessment?

With eight days left until the draft I will be taking a look at some of the known/unknowns of the draft. The players that pose an enormous risk, but are so worth drafting because that reward can pay off in a massive way. This is different from the Potential Steal article I wrote, because these players are generally first round picks. They have enough buzz and film to carry them into the first round, but have enough mystique to give them the "Gamble" label. These players have been watched and probed, all they need now is the right situation to bloom in. Players such as Serge Ibaka, Jimmy Butler, Roy Hibbert and Kenneth Faried were all looked at as potential high risk/high reward. Those players have all worked out well and provided high reward. Others have been a blown gamble such as Marvin Williams, Austin Daye and Brandon Wright. So lets see who is stirring the pot this draft season.

The Draft Fanatic

WILD CARDS!

1. Alex Len: Center, 7'1, 255 pounds: Maryland, Sophomore
Alex Len had a pretty solid career at Maryland. He averaged 12 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. While those number might not impress you, keep in mind he is 20 years old, a legit seven footer and had some big moments against key competition (23 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks against Kentucky). He has a great touch near the basket, can shoot the ball and he has great feet. The risk is that he may never blossom. He could flounder and become a Darko clone which could get your favorite team ridiculed forever, unless you can win a championship ASAP like Joe Dumars.



Ceiling: Brooke Lopez

Floor: Darko Milicic

2. Steven Adams: Center, 7'0, 255 pounds: Pitt, Freshman
Like Len Adams is young and has an opportunity to become something special. Adams had a pedestrian freshman season at Pitt, average 7 points, 6 board and 2 blocks per game. In fact until the combine, many viewed his early departure from Pitt as a mistake. Then he showed supreme athletic ability and a great shot. His shooting ability was a massive concern, but in the month following the end of the season he made large strides which moved him from fringe first rounder to potential lottery pick. What is the risk of a player with size, strength and a good looking jumper? Failure to put it all together. Adams has only played against high level talent a couple of years so he will be a long term project, but one that could be the key to a finals push 3-5 years down the road.


Ceiling: Andrew Bynum (when healthy)

Floor: Ryan Hollins


3. Rudy Gobert: Center, 7'2, 238 pounds: Cholet, France
Gobert is long. That is truly all you need to know. His measurements at the combine were astronomical (Standing reach 9'7). He can dunk a basketball while on his toes. Put that together with the fact that he has played at a pretty high level in France and you have the potential for a dominant defensive presence in a few years. Patience will be the key here though. He only weighs 238 pounds, which means he will get man handled for a couple of years until he can pack on the weight. Lucky for him he isn't the smallest big in this years draft (Nerlens Noel, 216 pounds) so that shouldn't be the knock against him. What should it be? Can and will he develop that mean streak that all great big men have? If he can, then scoring and blocking shots will become second nature. If he is placed in the right system, with quality coaches and a veteran presence he will be a starting center for the next decade.


Ceiling: Roy Hibbert

Floor: Shawn Bradley


4. Giannis Adetokunbo: Small Forward, 6'9, 196 pounds: Greece
This years largest mystery comes to us from Greece. The 6'9 potential prodigy has had NBA GM's flocking overseas for the last two months to see him play. Giannis burst on to my radar via the youtube video below. His story differs from the other prospects in that he has no experience playing against high  level talent of any caliber. He has a good handle for his size (some say high school pg), good vision and a aggressive nature. He can run the floor and has the potential to become that rare special talent. The lack of actual game time experience against consistently tough opponents will keep him stashed for at least another season, however if he manages to put it together he can have a All Star caliber game. The team that drafts him will need PATIENCE and then some. He is essentially at the level of a 5 star Junior in high school. He will need constant guidance and monitoring to ensure the growth.


Ceiling: Luol Deng

Floor: Yi Jianlian


5. Tony Mitchell: Power Forward, 6'9, 236 pounds: North Texas, Sophomore
Mitchell could have been drafted last year in the lottery. His talent is through the roof, but where is the motivation? He averaged 13 points, 8.5 boards and almost 3 blocks a game. Believe it or not, those were all down from his freshmen year. He has the ability erupt when he wants; 29 points, 15 boards and 4 blocks against Troy, but then he will drop a dud 3 points, 4 boards and 4 fouls against LA-Lafayette. He is an erratic talent, which some believe had more to do with the limitations of the program  he played in. If he can overcome his own demons and mature, he will be a definite dark horse.



Ceiling: Antoine Walker


Floor: Royce White


Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Mock Draft 2.0: SO MANY CHANGES!!!

Good day folks, we are now 9 days away from the NBA Draft and so much has happened since my initial Mock Draft. Lots of potential moves have been discussed, but in typical fashion teams are all being hush hush about them. Will Cleveland trade the top pick for a franchise player to team with Kyrie Irving or will the Kings finally part with DeMarcus Cousins? Will the Clippers and Celtics both make a deal that will shake the foundation of the NBA? Will Dwight Howard and Chris Paul's free agency be a factor? As you can see some major forces are at play and before its all said and done a new power will emerge. 



In the meantime, the most direct means of contributing to the growth of a team still remains the draft. Yes, you can sign a major impact player via free agency, but that truly only happens once every blue moon. Yes you can trade the farm for an elite talent that may solidify your finals chances (Rasheed Wallace to Detroit 2004) or you can pick up an available talent off the waiver wire. All of those are viable options, yet none of those are better than drafting talent and growing it yourself with the right support staff to back said player. Look at this years Playoffs for example, many of the prominent teams have added free agents but they all have a core group of guys that they drafted with a plan. This brings us to this years draft, lets look at what may happen come next Thursday. 

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Alex Len
2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Nerlens Noel 
5. Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Anthony Bennett
7. Sacramento Kings: Trey Burke 
8. Detroit Pistons: Michael Carter-Williams
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kentavious Claldwell-Pope 
10. Portland Trailblazers: C.J. McCollum
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams
13. Dallas Mavericks: Shabazz Muhammad 
14. Utah Jazz: Shane Larkin
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Sergey Karasev 
16. Boston Celtics: Dennis Schroeder 
17. Atlanta Hawks: Kelly Olynyk 
18. Atlanta Hawks: Jamaal Franklin
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: Glen Rice Jr. 
20. Chicago Bulls: Tim Hardaway Jr. 
21. Utah Jazz: Rudy Gobert
22. Brooklyn Nets: Reggie Bullock
23. Indiana Pacers: Ricky Ledo
24. New York Knicks: Isaiah Canaan 
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Allan Crabbe 
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Gorgui Dieng 
27. Denver Nuggets: Tony Mitchell 
28. San Antonio Spurs: Lucas Nogueira 
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Mason Plumlee 
30. Phoenix Suns: Jeff Withey 

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Fathers Day Special: Father/Son Combo's That Have Been Drafted

Its been 65 hours since I became a father and already I can't stop thinking about the 2036 NBA Draft. That year could potentially yield some serious talent. Chris Bosh's son for example will (if he decides to) have played at least 1 year of college ball and be eligible to be drafted. At least 3 of Dwight Howard's 4 kids will be eligible and as a cocky parent that never played in the league I would be remiss if I didn't mention my own son.



This year at least two former NBA All Stars and potential Hall of Famers should have sons drafted, Tim Hardaway and Glen Rice. Both have sons that have retained the family name and game. Hardaway Jr. took the more traditional route of playing in college at a high level, attending the University of Michigan as the starting two guard. He along with NPOY winner Trey Burke led the young Wolverines to a share of the Big Ten title in his sophomore year and to the National Final his junior year. Glen Rice Jr., a heralded talent coming out of high school took a more prolonged route to the draft. He initially attended and played at Georgia Tech, but was dismissed after several disciplinary issues. Rice found himself in the D-League playing for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers, where all of that potential came together. He helped lead the team to the D-League championship in his lone year and doubled his PPG averages in the Final Series.

(Side note: Seth Curry has also made himself available for this years NBA draft he is mentioned below)

Both of these young men show flashes of their fathers game, but have a unique skill set all to themselves. There is no doubting though that genetics played a large role in the two future stars success so far. There have been several duo's and even trio's in NBA history that have carried on in the family profession. Below I take a look at a hand full of these successful families.

1. The Curry's:



The Patriarch: Dell the great long range shooter out of Virginia Tech was a first round draft pick of the Utah Jazz in 1986. He played 16 years in the NBA, won Sixth Man of the Year in 1994 and had a career average of 12 ppg.

The Legacy: Stephen Curry; 7th overall pick in the 2009 NBA draft by Golden State.
Stats: 19 ppg/6 ast
Owns NBA single season 3pt record (272)

The Future: Seth Curry attended Duke University and is eligible for the 2013 NBA Draft. Potential Second Round Pick.
College Stats: 15 ppg for a career (17.5 senior year)

2. The Dunleavy's:



The Patriarch: Michael Dunleavy Sr. was drafted 99th overall in the 1976 NBA draft by the 76ers. He played 14 seasons in the NBA averaging 8 ppg.

The Legacy: Michael Dunleavy Jr.; 3rd overall pick in 2002 NBA draft by Golden State.
Stats: 12 ppg/ 4.5 reb

3. The Walton's:



The Patriarch: Bill Walton, one of the 50 greatest players to ever play the game. He was the last great center to play under the Wizard of Westwood (John Wooden) at UCLA. He won two consensus NPOY and 3 National Championships. He was the 1st overall pick in the 1974 draft by Portland and led them to a league title in 1977. He battled injuries for the remainder of his career but eventually found himself thriving in a Sixth Man role with the great Celtics teams of the 1980's. He is the only player to win both an NBA MVP award and Sixth Man of the Year. He averaged 13 ppt and 2 blocks for his career.

The Legacy: Luke Walton; 32nd Pick in the 2003 NBA draft by the Lakers.
Stats: 5 ppg
Won 2 Championships with Lakers in 2009/2010.

4. The Barry's:



The Patriarch: Rick Barry was selected 2nd overall in the 1965 NBA draft by the San Fransicso Warriors (Now GSW). Like Walton, Barry was named as one of the NBA's 50 greatest players. He is the only person to lead the NCAA, ABA and NBA in scoring for at least one whole season. He won Rookie of the Year in 1966, a Finals MVP in 1975 and was a 8 time NBA All Star. He averaged 25 ppg, 7 reb and 5 ast for his career.

The Legacy: Jon Barry; 21st overall pick in the 1992 NBA draft by the Celtics.
Stats: 5.7 ppg

Brent Barry; 15th overall pick in the 1995 NBA draft by the Denver Nuggets (Traded to Clippers).
Stats: 9.3 ppg
Slam Dunk Champion 1996, 2 time NBA Champion with San Antonio Spurs 2005/2007

Drew Barry; 57th overall pick in 1996 NBA draft by the Supersonics (OKC Thunder)
Stats: 2.2 ppg

5. The Bryant's:



The Patriarch: Joe "Jellybean" Bryant was the 14th overall pick in the 1975 NBA draft (traded to the 76ers). He teamed with Julius Erving, Doug Collins and George McGinnis for four years in Philly. They made it to the 1977 Finals, but lost to the Trailblazers. He eventually played for San Diego and Houston before heading overseas to play in Europe for the remainder of his career. He averaged 9 ppg and 4 rebs.

The Legacy: Kobe Bryant; 13th overall pick in the 1996 NBA draft by the Charlotte Hornets (traded to Lakers).
Stats: 25 ppg, 5 rebs, 5 asts
5 time NBA Champion, 2 time Finals MVP, NBA MVP (2008), 15 time All Star
*We could keep this going, but I am pretty sure we have the point on this one*

Happy Fathers Day

The Draft Fanatic

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Second Round Madness: Potential Steals

Every year there is that one player who is considered a diamond in the rough. Teams scout, review and pray that certain players fall to them in the Second Round of the draft. Usually the player in question has all the intangibles to play the pro game, but none of the allure that exists with first round picks. Several of todays stars were drafted in the second round, check out the list below.

1. Marc Gasol
2. Rashard Lewis
3. Manu Ginobili
4. Carlos Boozer
5. Isaiah Thomas (Sacramento Kings version)

As you can see, you can always find a quality talent lurking in the latter round, beaming with confidence and determined to make the team. This year is no different. There appears to be a fair amount of players that could contribute right away that don't have the "IT" factor that would otherwise make them a 1st round pick.

So what separates a first round pick from a second round pick and why do some of your favorite college players fall? Its all about Star Power, upside, size, age and availability. The Star Power conversation should need little explanation, either you have it or you don't. In the eyes of the scouts, upside equals potential. If you were a high school All American or attended one of the bigger universities and led the team in any meaningful way, you have a shot. You can't teach size; so if you have it at your position in combination with upside or Star Power its pretty much 1st round for you. Undersized players often are immediately called into question, especially tweeners. Age is always a big deal, it provides a certain level of risk if a player is older. The older the player, the more set in their ways they usually are. Availability only applies to foreign players. Lots of top notch foreign players have fallen to the second round because of the draft and stash option.

Below I am going to review some serious potential that could turn into a steal on draft day for teams drafting in the second round.

1. Mike Muscala: The 6'11 Senior from Bucknell had a outstanding college career. His senior year he averaged 19 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. He was named conference player of the year and made the Honorable Mention list for the All American Team. Muscala could step in right away for any team, serving as a quality big man. He has a great touch around the basket, can step away to shoot and would rebound at a pretty high level.





2. Brandon Davies: Davies had a roller coaster career at BYU. He was the subject of several news stories during the 2011 college season when he was suspended for violating the schools honor code. Since returning he has been BYU's best player leading them in scoring and rebounding. He averaged 18 points and 8 rebounds while leading BYU to the NIT Final Four. He has great skill with the ball, is an elite passer for a big man and he can spread the floor. He will be a nice addition to any second unit in the league.





3. Ray McCallum: The coaches kid averaged a conference high 19 points, while dishing out 4.5 assists and snagging 5 rebounds per game. He was named conference player of the year and led his Detroit Titans to the NIT. McCallum is aggressive on defense, has a high basketball IQ and could provide a great spark off the bench.






4. Pierre Jackson: The lightening quick point guard from Baylor had a pretty successful career. He averaged 20 points and 7 assists per game. With numbers like that, if he was 4 inches taller we would be talking about him as a lottery pick. Jackson led Baylor to the NIT championship and continues to impress in workouts. He has a great handle, can shoot from deep and he has a ton of heart.







5. Glen Rice Jr.: The son of NBA great Glen Rice has had his fair share of ups and downs. He left Georgia Tech under some shaky circumstances, but found his niche playing in the NBDL. If not for his troubled history, Rice would be a solid first round pick. Rice averaged 14.5 points and 7 rebounds during the regular season. He expanded his game during the playoffs averaging 25 points and 9.5 rebounds, while helping the Rio Grande Vipers win the NBDL Championship. Rice can score and can be a potential starter later down the line if he puts it all together.




The Draft Fanatic

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Detroit and Cleveland: A Tale of Two Cities

The Story:


During the 90's there were few surprises in the NBA. The Eastern Conference was dominated by the Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, and Indiana Pacers. The Bulls and Pacers represented the Central Division, where they maintained a stranglehold for more than 10 years. The Bulls won 6 titles and the Pacers made it to the Finals in 2002. The Pacers were often the second best team (Knicks were there as well) in the Eastern Conference, and for a small period of time they were on top. Once Michael Jordan retired and Scottie Pippen moved on during the post lockout era, the Bulls became bottom feeders. It would take a little while longer for the Pacers, but they also fell from grace, just in a more embarrassing manner. See video for more on that.




DETROIT PISTONS:

I'm going to take you back to 2002. A year in which Joe Dumars decided enough was enough. He decided to make a major power move. He brought in a group of guys that played a pivotal role in the Pistons returning to the Promised Land; Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. They would join with Ben Wallace, and eventually Rasheed Wallace, to form the dynamic foursome which led Detroit to one of the greatest upsets in NBA history. The Pistons beat the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers in the 2004 Finals and cemented their position as a defensive powerhouse. For the next 4 seasons Detroit remained in the top tier of the NBA, making it back to the Eastern Conference Finals each time. Eventually that clock ran out. Chauncey Billups was traded to Denver, Richard Hamilton lost motivation, and Ben Wallace joined the Cavaliers. All that was left was Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons fell from the top tier and found themselves searching for hope.



CLEVELAND CAVALIERS:

In 2003 the Cleveland Cavaliers drafted the 6'8 prodigy from Akron, LeBron James. Life changed. James was expected to return the Cavaliers to basketball's higher tier after years of toiling at the bottom of the league. In his first season he led the team to a 35 win season, which was a 18 win improvement over the previous season. He along with Zydrunas Ilguaskas would continue to spearhead a young and hungry Cavaliers team that took the league by storm. The team peaked early and they made it to the Finals in 2007. The Cavaliers were swept by a more experienced San Antonio team, but the world knew the real story; LeBron James and his Cavaliers were here to stay, or so everyone thought. "The Decision" heard around the world changed everything. LeBron departed the city that loved him and joined forces with Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade down in Miami to form the new "Big 3". This brought an end to the Cavaliers brief period of dominance and demoralized the fan base.



The Future:

Both of these organizations once terrorized the league, had devoted fan bases and superstars, yet neither was impervious to the inevitable fall from glory. Its now 2013 and we stand on the eve of the NBA Draft. Once again the Pistons and the Cavaliers find themselves in the lottery with hopes of drafting a piece of the puzzle that will help lead them back to the top of the Central Division, the playoffs, and the Promised Land. Below we will take a look at what both teams have and what they might want to add that will upgrade their chances at making that trip back.

Cleveland Cavaliers:

Superstar: Kyrie Irving - 22.5 ppg/5.6 ast - NBA All Star
Young Talent: Dion Waters - 14.7 ppg /Tristan Thompson - 11.7 ppg/9.4 reb



Potential Picks

1. Nerlens Noel: Noel, when (or if) healthy could give Cleveland a young and aggressive defensive presence in the middle. His elite shot blocking skills, length, and athletic ability will provide the Cavaliers with the perfect counterpart for Kyrie Irving to grow with.
2. Otto Porter: Porter is the more logical pick for the Cavaliers. Cleveland has been in search of a wing to fill the massive hole left by LeBron James. While LeBron is irreplaceable, Porter would be a nice compliment for the young team and could develop into a Paul George like wing capable of contributing in many ways.
3. Alex Len: The true wild card of the draft Len has been hurt since the end of the college basketball season. Like Noel, he is full of potential and could blossom into one of the gems of this draft. Getting a young Big Man with upside is a premium (Roy Hibbert/Joakim Noah/Serge Ibaka), but if you can find one and link him with a young stud like Irving you have a winning combination.

Detroit Pistons:

Superstar: Greg Monroe - 16.0 ppg/9.6 reb
Young Talent: Brandon Knight - 13.3 ppg/ Andre Drummond - 7.9 ppg/ 7.6 reb/ 1.6 blk



Potential Picks:

1. Michael Carter-Williams: MCW could be that final piece the Pistons need to make that step forward towards the playoffs. He has a great feel for the game and his best asset is his height. At 6'6 he could team in the back court with Brandon Knight, allowing Knight to play the more natural role of off guard.
2. Anthony Bennett: Its likely Bennett will be off the board long before the Pistons pick, however if the luck of the previous 3 years holds up he could fall to them. He could serve a dual purpose for the Pistons as a needed small forward or back up to Greg Monroe. Bennett can stretch the D with his ability to knock down the outside shot and would add great size to an all ready big Detroit front line.
3. C.J. McCollum: McCollum can shoot the ball and provide that added offensive punch. The Pistons struggled to create offense without Monroe on the court. Adding McCollum would bring another weapon to the team that is capable of creating his own offense.

We are two weeks away from Draft Night and a lot can happen between today and then. Based off what we know right now, any of these scenarios could work for both teams and would be a great step in the right direction. With the foundations in place, both teams hiring new coaching staffs (Mike Brown and Maurice Cheeks) and another year in the lottery, anything is possible.

The Draft Fanatic


Monday, June 10, 2013

The Lottery and How it Should Shake Out: Mock 1.0


1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel
Why: Not only is he the best player on the board, but he will immediately upgrade the frontcourt. They were terrible at both rebounding and blocking shots. When healthy, Noel serves as a ELITE rim protector extraordinaire. Before getting hurt he averaged 4.5 blocks per game and 9.5 rebounds, two things that usually translate really well to the pro game. He is still raw offensively, but in time he will become a threat to score at will within 15ft of the goal.

Risk: He only weighs 206 pounds and he is hurt. If not for the injury he may have increased his weight to a respectable 220/225. In time he will put on the desired weight, but early on expect him to struggle against stronger opponents.

2. Orlando Magic: Trey Burke
Why: Without a doubt the best PG in the draft. He could serve as the final piece to the puzzle for a young team trying to put it all together. Burke was consensus NPOY in college this past season and led a young Michigan team to the NCAA Final. He has the ability to shoot from deep and create offensive for his teammates, which would serve both Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic well. He executes well in the half court and can finish in traffic, which has become a necessity in today’s league.

Risk: Burke didn't test well in the lane drills during the combine. He doesn’t appear to have the ELITE speed of a John Wall or the exceptional LEAPING ability of Derrick Rose. Will this be a problem and if so, can he still play at a high level? Will he be able to guard the big 5? Rondo, Rose, Williams, Westbrook or Parker. 
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter 

Why: Porter is ready for the Pro game right now. He has great size, length and can play at a high level. He has a higher than norm Basketball IQ for a late bloomer, that serves him well on defense and in isolations. Knows how to create offense and is a team player.

Risk: He may be the safest bet in the draft for any of the teams in the lottery, but he isn’t without flaws. His jumper needs work and he can put on more muscle.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Ben McLemore


Why: If this shakes out, this will be an absolute no-brainer for MJ. He is a kid that can flat out score the ball. As a freshman McLemore led Kansas in scoring (16.4 ppg) while shooting 43.7 percent from 3. He can create his own shot off the dribble, has good size and he is a superb athlete. A backcourt of McLemore and Kemba Walker in tandem with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could make for a great future. Let’s see if MJ gets it right.

Risk: The boy has a questionable heart. It could be the youth factor (Age 20) or the fact that he was a freshman on a senior team, but he has a tendency to vanish. He has a pretty high ceiling if he puts it together, but if he doesn’t develop the aggressive nature to play SG he may end up in bust territory.
5. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Bennett
Why: This kid can flat out score. If he is 2 inches taller he challenges Noel for top pick in the draft. Bennett has huge potential, huge hands, huge upper body, and huge upside. As a potential PF he could become a matchup nightmare on the wing because of his ability to shoot the ball. He is has long arms and a knack for hitting the boards. Phoenix needs all the help they can get and Bennett would fill several needs at once.
Risk: Bennett is a bit of a tweener. He can play both forward spots, but doesn’t appear to be a lock for either spot. He can shoot and create from the wing, but he doesn’t have the quickness to guard opposing small forwards. He can bang on the block with bigs and jump out of the gym, but only stands at 6'7.

6. New Orleans Pelicans: C.J. McCollum 
Why: This kid can shoot the ball. The Austin Rivers experiment failed and while he still has time to put it together, it may be smart to move on to someone that will be ready by October. McCollum will serve as a great SG in the NBA. He has a good handle, great size and an eye for the bucket. He spent half the year injured, but before the injury he was shooting over 50 percent from 3. He is a good athlete and should be able to hold his own against opposing players.

Risk: He is built more like a PG, but doesn’t have the ideal skill package to play the position. While his IQ is high, his handle and passing ability need work.
7. Sacramento Kings: Shabazz Muhammad 
Why: If the Kings allow Tyreke Evans to walk someone will need to pick up the slack. He has the ability to score the ball and he has a physical game. He could play well off of DeMarcus Cousins and provide that wing presence the Kings have lacked since the Peja days.

Risk: Maturity remains an issue with Muhammad. Once hailed as a potential number 1 pick, he got himself into trouble while at UCLA and couldn’t shake the issues. He has a questionable motor, unless he has the ball in his hands and may be a subpar defender.
8. Detroit Pistons: Michael Carter-Williams 
Why: Detroit has a great trio of young talent in Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight. MCW would be a great fit alongside Knight in the back court. He could bring the ball up on offense and defend the SG on defense. His lack of scoring could be covered down by Knight and Monroe. He has great length, court vision and is a good athlete. His size is his best weapon against opposing players.

Risk: His jumper needs work. He has odd mechanics on his shot, which in time could be remedied. He also needs to add strength and weight. He could be an easy target on defense because he will be placed in the post by larger shooting guards.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Victor Oladipo 
Why: Why not? The kid has a motor. A serious MOTOR! He would play great off of Ricky Rubio. He has long arms, huge hands; ELITE speed and loves to defend. He can get out in the open court and makes the right play more often than not.

Risk: He is raw offensively and will need time to work on his jump shot. His handle will need some work, but his work ethic will prevail.

10. Portland Trailblazers: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 



Why: This young man played for a bad team in Georgia, but put up quality numbers. He averaged 18.5 ppg and mostly off of shots he created for himself. Could be a much needed upgrade at the SG position for a team on the verge.

Risk: He played against subpar competition for most of the year and may not be tested. He has upside, but needs to improve 3pt shooting and work on adding muscle. Not a bad defender, but not a great one either.

 
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller 

Why: It’s only so long they can wait for Andrew Bynum and if they decide not to sign him they will have a nice insurance policy. Zeller tested out of this world at the combine and has a high motor. He can run like the wind and has a nice touch around the basket. High basketball IQ.
Risk: He has short arms and may not be physical enough to play against NBA big men. Could get labeled as soft. Had a history of being outplayed by aggressive big men in college.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams 


Why: The young Kiwi put on a show at the combine. He proved he could shoot the ball and tested well. He would be a great project for the team that molded Serge Ibaka. This would give them more post scoring and a potential front court replacement for Kendrick Perkins.

Risk: He is a long term investment. The team that drafts him will need to be patient, but it could pay off in a major way. His development is slightly stunted from years of playing against lesser competition.

13. Dallas Mavericks: Dario Saric

Why: A 6'10 foreign prospect that can shoot, sound familiar? The most NBA ready foreign prospect could serve as an apprentice to Dirk Nowitzki. He can shoot the ball and is a pretty good athlete. He has a great feel for the game and touch from deep. In 2012 he was named MVP of the FIBA Under 18 championship after averaging 25 ppg and 10 rebounds. Potential is all you see.

Risk: So why does he fall out of the top 10? He may not come to the States. After being in the US for the last month, he has returned home and is considering forgoing the upcoming NBA season whether he is selected or not.

14. Utah Jazz: Shane Larkin

Why: The son of baseball great Barry Larkin had one heck of a year. He led is Miami Hurricanes to an ACC title and was named a Second Team All American. He is a freak athlete and has great speed. He can shoot the ball and will be a great floor leader in the NBA.
Risk: He is undersized. He will struggle against larger point guards and may need to be compensated for on defense. He may not be able to finish in traffic due to a lack of size.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

The Big Fix: Patience or Immediate Action

Since the beginning of the Modern Draft Era (Circa 1990) the league has seen its fair share of DRAFT BUSTS. What consitutes a draft bust? Is it a consensus misread of the talent in question or is it a lack of actual skill by the individual drafted. The idea of actually being drafted into the League, automatically qualifies a player a certain respect. Being one of the best young talents in the world during any given year places you in the pool of 60 individuals that may hear their name called on Draft Night.


Who is to blame for the consistent "bad" picks? Is it the bloated and corrupt AAU system? Is it the John Calipari's of the world that endorse and recruit the known One and Done talent? Is it the media that hypes potential lottery talent years in advance without actually seeing a particular player in a situation that would be considered the equivalent of the pro level? All of these play a large part in the big picture, but at the end of the day the blame lies on the shoulders of the organization drafting the player. I mean what is the said player going to do when a decent portion of the basketball world proclaims them as "The Next Big Thing" or "The Savior". Not everyone can shoulder the burden of a LeBron James or Tim Duncan two key examples of the stars aligning just right for everyone involved.

The Teams are the ones who take the advice of their own scouts as well as the outside consensus. Sometimes the mantra "Best Available Player" or definite player loom larger than the immediate need. The definite pick is overlooked for the alleged "Sure Thing". Not all talent is worth taking a risk on. Some teams resort to the controversial tactic of tanking to get to that potential Golden Nugget (Golden State Warriors 2012 clearly tanked for Harrison Barnes). Sometimes its a ok thing to take the Patient approach. The investment in the "Right Thing" is often better than the "Best Available  Player" rule which often leaves teams in an awkward situation years down the road. The search for the immediate gratification of gaining a early playoff spot for a team that may have missed a few seasons could drive them further away from the initial goal.

Below I will detail in no particular order, organizations that have had more luck than most, because lets face it, some of this is about luck. When the right year comes around and the season begins to look a little bleak, GM's often look down the road. The question of who will I keep in the off season and how will that affect next season becomes necessary when looking at how well that talent will blend with the potential draft pick. Prepare to learn a little something and be amazed at how certain organizations maintain without offering up the big bucks to the Dwight's and LeBron's of the world.

1. San Antonio Spurs: Of course "Old Faithful" leads the charge. Their first homerun was with David Robinson in the 1987 draft. They were clearly looking at the long term potential because the Admiral was unable to immediately join the team (Fulfilling that Obligation to Country), but once he arrived they took off. Ten years later they hit another homerun with Tim Duncan in 1997 which led to a total of 4 championships in 16 years. They were also able to capitalize on the foreign market with great success drafting Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker and more recently Tiago Splitter. R.C. Buford the longtime GM is one of the best in the business and the Emporer himself Gregg Popovich gets the most out of this talent.
 


2. Indiana Pacers: The Pacers have had a pretty decent go of it in the draft. During the 80's they found a pretty decent cornerstone in Reggie Miller which along with several other players drafted by the organization brought the team success in the Eastern Conference. They peaked in 2000 when they made it to the Finals, but ultimately lost against the Lakers. More recently with the guidance of former President of Basketball Operations Larry Bird, current President Donnie Walsh and GM Kevin Pritchard the team has had great success in the draft.

In 2005 they drafted Danny Granger; in 2008 they made a draft day trade for franchise cornerstone and defensive stalwart Roy Hibbert; in 2009 they drafted college legend Tyler Hansbrough; 2010 they hit the jackpot with Paul George (2013 Most Improved Player) and Brooklyn streetball prodigy Lance Stephenson. This measured approach through the draft has led the Indiana Pacers to the Playoffs the last couple of years with a serious chance to contend for years to come.



3. Golden State Warriors: The Titans of tank have had recent success in a major way after going through a series of up and down years through the late 90's and mid 2000's. In the early 90's they had a offensive juggernaut with "Run TMC", the combination of Mitch Richmond, Chris Mullin and Tim Hardaway. In 1993 they traded for Chris Webber the primary piece of the "Fabled Michigan Fab Five". Several players were drafted after Webber, but none could truly restore the feeling that Run TMC brought to the city of Oakland.

That feeling returned when the organization finally decided to draft smart and stop trolling for the quick fix (Troy Murphy, Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis) and looked for the long term cure. In 2009 they drafted the 3pt shooting wizard Steph Curry.  In 2011 they drafted the sweet shooting Klay Thompson continuing the youth movement and slow methodical approach. After acquiring Andrew Bogut in a late season hijacking for the notorious chucker Monta Ellis, the Great Tank project of 2012 paid off for GSW. They drafted the dynamic wing Harrison Barnes from UNC. Throw in the late round steal of Festus Ezeli and second round theft of Draymond Green. This rebuilding process is complete, welcome back to the playoff picture GSW.  



4. Chicago Bulls: The legendary Bulls hit possibly the greatest jackpot in professional sports history when the Portland Trailblazers selected Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan. No one blames Houston for taking stud Akeem Olajuwon he won two titles. As we all know His Airness led the franchise to new heights, what happend after his departure left a void the size of New York City. Once the Kingdom fell, the keys to the Bulls organization were handed to Duke PG Jason Williams. After a productive rookie season things looked bright, however they came to a screeching halt. Williams career was cut short during a off seaon injury and the Kingdom was lost.

In 2004 the Bulls drafted Luol Deng and Ben Gordon. Both proved valuable, but Gordon departed in search of dollars after his rookie contract. In 2007 they drafted Joakim Noah, fresh off two National Championships at the University of Florida. The following year they drafted Derrick Rose from the University of Memphis and the sun began to rise yet again. Within two years of entering the league Rose had catapulted the Bulls back into the conversation as a potential contender. Rose won the 2011 MVP and led the Bulls to the Eastern Conference Finals. That same year they found a diamond in the rough in Jimmy Butler who has become one of the best young wings in basketall. Despite a rash of injuries the last two years, the Bulls have remained resilient and will look to contend for years to come.   



5. Oklohoma City Thunder: The Organization formally known as the Seattle Supersonics saw lots of success with the NBA Draft prior to becoming the OKC Thunder; Nate McMillan, Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, Rashard Lewis and the final jewel Kevin Durant. The Sonics were perennial threats during the 90's in the West with their lock down defense and lights out offense. After the lockout shortend season in 1999 the team lost its way for years relying on veterans and off season free agent acquisitions to survive.

In 2007 the Franchise won the second pick in the 2007 draft which they used to draft the aformentioned Kevin Durant.The 6'9 swingman from the University of Texas was College Player of the Year and is a matchup nightmare. In 2008 the team was relocated to Oklohoma City. They drafted Russell Westbrook, the hyper talented guard from UCLA and Big Man Serge Ibaka. Providing the team with the key cornerstones for the future. The following year they drafted James Harden who helped lead the team into the playoffs. Harden would go on to win 6th Man of the year in 2012.  This fearsome foursome took the Thunder to the 2012 Finals, where they eventually lost to the Miami Heat. Harden was traded to Houston, but the bulk of the franchise remained intact. The Thunder have also drafted Nick Collison, Reggie Jackson and Perry Jones III. As long as the organization remains in the capable hands of Sam Presti and Scott Brooks they will continue to succeed via the draft with home grown talent. 


This measured approach to the draft has led to long term success. Some teams (Bobcats) look for the quick shot, others (Knick and Lakers) have storied organizations in big markets. They are more willing to gamble big in order to please the fans, however this can result in a catastrophic failure; just ask Isaiah Thomas. Patience wins out in running a franchise, yes it requires a few years of empty results but it could end up being the right way to go for the chance to win a Championship.

The Draft Fanatic